Solidarity with Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees continues – but not at any price / Strong rejection of other refugees

For MIDEM Director Professor Hans Vorländer, one thing is certain: “Germany and countries in Central and Eastern Europe such as Poland have shown great willingness to take in Ukrainian refugees. Civil society has done a tremendous job here. The EU has also shown its unity and the mass influx directive has been applied for the first time. However, this does not represent a general paradigm shift in European refugee and migration policy. Openness towards Ukrainian refugees is not the same as openness towards all refugees.”

Read the whole study (link to https://forum-midem.de/cms/data/fm/user_upload/Publikationen/TUD_MIDEM_Jahresstudie2022_Europa_und_die_Fluchtmigration_aus_der_Ukraine.pdf)

A large majority of Europeans are in favor of accepting Ukrainian refugees. However, solidarity for Ukraine could shrink significantly due to the economic and social costs. Furthermore, solidarity does not extend equally to all refugees. These are the findings of a new study by the Mercator Forum Migration and Democracy (MIDEM), which is being published today in Berlin. The results of the representative survey conducted in cooperation with the opinion research institute YouGov paint a mixed picture of European attitudes towards migration and Ukraine. While there is a great willingness to welcome and help Ukrainian refugees, skepticism towards refugees from other crisis regions prevails. There are particularly strong reservations about immigrants from predominantly Muslim countries. Interviewees expressed greater concerns about their ability to integrate.

In Europe, the majority of people associate migration with a desire for control and limitation. This also applies to countries that have seen a trend towards greater openness to migration in recent years. In Sweden, for example, the majority of those in favor of fundamentally limiting immigration are particularly clear. “The vast majority of respondents are of the opinion that migration is the most politically controversial issue – far ahead of economic and climate issues,” continues Hans Vorländer. Only in countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic, which have taken in a particularly large number of refugees from Ukraine, does the issue of migration rank more in the middle.

“The topic of migration obviously still harbors considerable social dynamite,” says Christiane von Websky, Head of Participation and Cohesion at Stiftung Mercator. “Our aim is to prevent social division. This study makes an important contribution to this by highlighting risks to political decision-makers and taking a differentiated look at Europe,” says von Websky. Stiftung Mercator co-initiated Midem in 2017 and has been funding the research center at the Technical University of Dresden ever since.

Economic and social follow-up costs could weaken support for Ukraine

There are signs that support for Ukraine could crumble due to the already emerging consequences of the energy crisis. According to the MIDEM survey, only a small relative majority (40%) are already in favor of continuing support for Ukraine, even at the cost of negative economic and social consequences. However, 39% of respondents are of the opposite opinion, according to which support for Ukraine should be reduced due to the negative consequences. The Czech Republic and Hungary – but also eastern Germany – are the least willing to continue supporting Ukraine to the same extent, even in the face of growing economic costs. “So,” concludes MIDEM Director Hans Vorländer, “a stress test for solidarity with Ukraine could be imminent in the coming months.”

Differences between East and West Germany

In general, there are significant differences between East and West Germany with regard to war and migration. For example, the survey shows that more than a third of respondents in the east believe that NATO is partly to blame for the war – similar to the Czech Republic and Hungary. This means that the mood in eastern Germany differs significantly from the EU average. Agreement with statements critical of migration is also stronger in eastern Germany than in the west.